Just occurred to me that there is "NORMAL" scenario planning technique which is well-known and in common practice, and there is an "EXCEPTIONAL" abnormal type of scenario planning technique which is not that popular or in common practice
The NORMAL type is the one being adopted in business planning where you put a "best-case scenario", a "worst-case scenario" and a "most-likely scenario" . This kind of planning usually deals with KNOWN/PREDICTABLE & VERIFIABLE facts and figures and hence many people can deal with it and use it effectively, specially for short and medium term planning
The ABNORMAL one is one that is NOT that known or in common practice. I would even say that it is mostly unappreciated by the business community and you will see why.
A good example of such planning is the "extreme (multiple) scenario planning" technique that may span an extended time horizon of 20-50 years or even more
The NORMAL type is the one being adopted in business planning where you put a "best-case scenario", a "worst-case scenario" and a "most-likely scenario" . This kind of planning usually deals with KNOWN/PREDICTABLE & VERIFIABLE facts and figures and hence many people can deal with it and use it effectively, specially for short and medium term planning
The ABNORMAL one is one that is NOT that known or in common practice. I would even say that it is mostly unappreciated by the business community and you will see why.
A good example of such planning is the "extreme (multiple) scenario planning" technique that may span an extended time horizon of 20-50 years or even more
- This is one reason why such techniques lack appreciation from business community which usually operates in much shorter time frames that 20 or even 50 years.
- The other reason for such lack of appreciation for this ABNORMAL type of scenario planning that in such extended time frames, the picture would not be crisp and crystal clear, lots of the things it deals could be totally or partially UNKNOWN/UNPREDICTABLE and hence the difficulty and lack of appreciation
Still the "multiple/extreme scenario planning technique" would be of particular value to nations, economies, family business owners, political/social economical reform movements and so on so forth. A common example of this type of planning would be the 20 or 25 year vision for some common frame like "Aviation 2050", "Banking 2025", "ArabWorld 2035", " Islam 2050", ...
Here, two more topics come into the model
- Brainstorming Methodologies and techniques including mindjet/mindmesiter planning tools to draw mind maps foor the topics being discussed.
- Think-Tank/Master-Mind methodologies and techniques which could include the elite of the planning society from all sectors.
More details in future postings ... inshallah !
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